USD/JPY closed at 158.26 on October 20, 2026, in DataPorium's daily data, up 0.9% for the year from 156.85 on December 31, 2025, but 3.4% below the 2026 high close of 163.84 on July 28 [1]. On October 7, 2026, the pair closed at 158.05 [1]. The US 2-year Treasury yield was 4.79% on October 20, 3.54 percentage points above the Bank of Japan's policy rate of around 1.25%, so borrowing in yen to hold dollars still pays [2][3]. That gap, more than any single policy decision in Tokyo, keeps the dollar near 158 yen.
What is the USD/JPY exchange rate in October 2026?
The pair has traded in a narrow band in October. Weekday closes from October 1 to October 20, 2026 ranged from 157.82 on October 2 to 158.57 on October 12, a spread of less than one yen [1]. US long-term yields eased: the 10-year Treasury yield fell from 5.31% on October 5 to 5.12% on October 20 [2].
| Date | USD/JPY close | US 2-year yield | US 10-year yield |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 30, 2026 | 157.40 | 4.88% | 5.29% |
| October 1, 2026 | 158.07 | 4.78% | 5.24% |
| October 2, 2026 | 157.82 | 4.83% | 5.28% |
| October 5, 2026 | 157.89 | 4.84% | 5.31% |
| October 6, 2026 | 158.09 | 4.79% | 5.27% |
| October 7, 2026 | 158.05 | 4.77% | 5.28% |
| October 8, 2026 | 157.86 | 4.75% | 5.22% |
| October 9, 2026 | 158.27 | 4.80% | 5.24% |
| October 12, 2026 | 158.57 | no Treasury data (holiday) | no Treasury data (holiday) |
| October 13, 2026 | 158.30 | 4.79% | 5.21% |
| October 14, 2026 | 158.30 | 4.82% | 5.19% |
| October 15, 2026 | 157.98 | 4.77% | 5.10% |
| October 16, 2026 | 157.98 | 4.74% | 5.09% |
| October 19, 2026 | 158.49 | 4.77% | 5.15% |
| October 20, 2026 | 158.26 | 4.79% | 5.12% |
Source: DataPorium Forex, USD/JPY daily closes (yen per dollar) [1]; DataPorium Interest Rates, daily Treasury par yields [2]. Weekend rows in the exchange-rate data are left out.
A year earlier, on October 20, 2025, USD/JPY closed at 150.74, so the dollar has gained 5.0% against the yen over 12 months [1]. Over the same period, the US 2-year yield rose from 3.46% to 4.79% and the 10-year from 4.00% to 5.12% [2]. Daily rates and the yield curve are on DataPorium's forex page and interest rates page.
How did USD/JPY move through 2026, and what did intervention do?
| Date | USD/JPY close | Event |
|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2025 | 156.85 | Start of 2026 |
| April 27, 2026 | 159.41 | Day before the spring intervention period |
| May 1, 2026 | 157.02 | Inside the intervention period |
| May 27, 2026 | 159.50 | Last day of the intervention period |
| June 16, 2026 | 160.37 | Bank of Japan raises rate to around 1.0% |
| July 28, 2026 | 163.84 | 2026 high close |
| July 31, 2026 | 157.47 | Joint US-Japan yen purchase reported |
| September 11, 2026 | 153.47 | Lowest weekday close since July |
| September 18, 2026 | 156.85 | Bank of Japan raises rate to around 1.25% |
| October 20, 2026 | 158.26 | Latest close |
Source: DataPorium Forex, USD/JPY daily closes [1]; Bank of Japan decisions [3][4]; intervention reports [5][6][7].
The July 31 joint intervention
DataPorium's data show the dollar fell from 163.84 yen on July 28, 2026 to 157.47 on July 31, three trading days later, a 3.9% drop [1]. Most of it came on July 30 and July 31 in the data's UTC daily bars [1]. As DataPorium's Q3 2026 dollar recap reports, Japan's Ministry of Finance and the US Treasury bought yen together on July 31, a coordinated move both governments confirmed [5][6]. After a dip to 153.47 on September 11, the pair climbed back to 158.26 by October 20, a rise of 3.1% [1].
The spring intervention
Japan's Ministry of Finance reported intervention of 11,734.9 billion yen for April 28 to May 27, 2026, after zero in the January to March quarter and in the March 30 to April 27 period [7]. The pair was 159.41 the day before that period and 159.50 on its last day, after a dip to 157.02 on May 1 [1]. Intervention bought time; it did not change the yield gap.
Signals that have come before past action include:
- Speed of the move: the Ministry has acted after rapid, disorderly moves rather than at a fixed level; the pair rose from 160.37 on June 16 to 163.84 on July 28 before the July operation [1][6].
- The monthly intervention release, which confirms an operation only after the fact [7].
- Bank of Japan meetings, since a rate rise narrows the carry [3].
- US inflation and Treasury yields, which set the other side of the carry [2].
Why is the yen still weak after two Bank of Japan rate hikes?
The Bank of Japan has raised rates twice in 2026, according to its own releases. On June 16, by a 7 to 1 vote, it raised its guideline for the overnight call rate to around 1.0%, effective June 17, and said it would keep raising if its outlook was realized [4]. On September 18, by a 7 to 2 vote, it raised the rate to around 1.25%, effective September 24, as DataPorium's September central bank recap reports [3][8]. The Federal Reserve also raised rates on September 16, to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00%, effective September 17 [2].
The currency barely reacted. USD/JPY closed at 160.37 on June 16 and 162.52 on June 30; it closed at 156.85 on September 18 and 157.40 on September 30 [1]. A quarter-point move in Japan is small next to a US rate that also rose.
The rate gap in numbers
| Rate | Level | Date |
|---|---|---|
| Bank of Japan policy rate | around 1.25% | Effective September 24, 2026 [3] |
| Fed funds target range | 3.75% to 4.00% | Since September 17, 2026 [2] |
| US 3-month Treasury yield | 4.26% | October 20, 2026 [2] |
| US 2-year Treasury yield | 4.79% | October 20, 2026 [2] |
| US 10-year Treasury yield | 5.12% | October 20, 2026 [2] |
| Japan 10-year government bond yield (monthly average) | 2.67% | June 2026 [9] |
| USD/JPY | 158.26 | October 20, 2026 [1] |
Source: DataPorium Forex and Interest Rates [1][2]; Bank of Japan [3]; FRED for the Japanese 10-year yield [9].
Japanese long-term yields have risen a long way: the 10-year JGB yield averaged 2.06% in December 2025, 2.345% in March 2026, 2.515% in April and 2.67% in June [9]. But US yields rose too, and short rates matter most for currency carry.
What the Bank of Japan's outlook says
The Bank's April 2026 Outlook Report shows why it is tightening into a weak economy. The median Policy Board forecast for fiscal 2026 put real GDP growth at 0.5%, down from 1.0% in January, and core CPI inflation at 2.8%, up from 1.9% [10]. For fiscal 2027 the medians were 0.7% growth and 2.3% inflation [10]. The Bank tied the growth downgrade to higher crude oil prices, which cut corporate profits and household real income [10]. Japan imports most of its energy, so an oil shock weakens growth and lifts inflation at the same time.
What does the yen carry trade earn in 2026?
A yen carry trade borrows at Japanese rates and invests at US rates. It earns the spread as long as the yen does not rise faster than the spread. Our analysis of DataPorium's exchange-rate and Treasury data shows the gap between the US 2-year yield and the Bank of Japan's policy rate widened from 3.31 points on July 22, 2026 (4.31% against around 1.0%) to 3.54 points on October 20, 2026 (4.79% against around 1.25%), while USD/JPY fell 3.0% over the same period, from 163.14 to 158.26 [1][2][3][4].
Measured against the Fed's 3.75% to 4.00% range instead, the gap is 2.50 to 2.75 points as of October 20, 2026 [2][3]. Either way, the trade survives a yen gain of roughly 2.5% to 3.5% a year. The July episode shows the risk: the yen gained 4.0% against the dollar between July 28 and July 31, more than a full year of carry, in three trading days [1].
Three developments would threaten the trade: faster Bank of Japan hikes, a fall in US yields, or another intervention that forces a quick unwind. The next Fed decision is due on October 28, 2026, with another on December 9 [2].
USD/JPY closed at 158.26 on October 20, 2026, 3.4% below its July 28 high, as a 3.54-point gap between the US 2-year yield and the Bank of Japan's policy rate outweighed two Japanese rate hikes.
Key takeaways
- USD/JPY closed at 158.26 on October 20, 2026, up 0.9% for 2026 and 5.0% over 12 months [1].
- The dollar fell from 163.84 yen on July 28 to 157.47 on July 31, 2026, when the US and Japan bought yen together [1][5][6].
- The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to around 1.0% in June and around 1.25% in September 2026 [3][4].
- The US 2-year yield of 4.79% on October 20, 2026 leaves a carry of 3.54 points over the Bank of Japan's rate [2][3].
- Japan reported 11,734.9 billion yen of intervention from April 28 to May 27, 2026; the pair ended that period at 159.50, almost where it started [1][7].
Frequently asked questions
What is the USD/JPY exchange rate in October 2026?
USD/JPY closed at 158.26 on October 20, 2026 [1]. Weekday closes from October 1 to October 20 ranged from 157.82 to 158.57 [1].
What was the USD/JPY exchange rate on October 7, 2026?
USD/JPY closed at 158.05 on October 7, 2026, after 157.89 on October 5 and 158.09 on October 6 [1]. The US 10-year yield was 5.28% that day [2].
What is the Bank of Japan policy rate in 2026?
The Bank of Japan's target for the overnight call rate is around 1.25%, effective September 24, 2026, after a 7 to 2 vote on September 18 [3]. It was around 1.0% from June 17 [4].
Did Japan intervene to support the yen in 2026?
Yes. The Ministry of Finance reported 11,734.9 billion yen of intervention from April 28 to May 27, 2026, and the US and Japan bought yen together on July 31, 2026 [5][6][7]. The dollar fell from 163.84 to 157.47 yen between July 28 and July 31 [1].
Sources & References
- [1] DataPorium Forex: USD/JPY daily and monthly exchange rates
- [2] DataPorium Interest Rates (Treasury yields and Fed decisions)
- [3] Bank of Japan, Change in the Guideline for Money Market Operations (September 18, 2026)
- [4] Bank of Japan: Change in the Guideline for Money Market Operations, June 16, 2026
- [5] DataPorium, US Dollar in Q3 2026: Flat Overall as the Yen Jumps (October 15, 2026)
- [6] CNBC, U.S., Japan confirm coordinated yen intervention, signal readiness for more (August 3, 2026)
- [7] Ministry of Finance Japan: Foreign Exchange Intervention Operations, April 28 to May 27, 2026
- [8] DataPorium, Central Banks in September 2026: Fed, ECB and BoJ Hike Rates (October 13, 2026)
- [9] FRED: Long-Term Government Bond Yields, 10-Year, Japan (IRLTLT01JPM156N), monthly
- [10] Bank of Japan: Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices, April 2026 (The Bank's View)